December 31, 2011

Victometrics ... The measurement of victory!


Victometrics are measurable elements that objectively define victory or defeat in a competitive scenario. You could also call them "victory points".

  • In football, the number of points on a scoreboard is a victometric.
  • In poker, the number of chips a player controls is a victometric.
  • In a race, the runner's course completion time is a victometric.
  • In Capture the Flag, successful capture of the flag is a victometric.
  • In Starcraft, the number of remaining opposing units is a victometric.
  • In King of the Hill, the time spent as King of the Hill might be a victometric.
  • In chess, the number of places that a threatened king can move is a victometric. When a threatened king has nowhere to move, it is checkmate.

These are all primary victometrics.  They are the final determining factor of victory or defeat.  There may be dozens or hundreds of secondary victometrics that contribute to changes in a primary victometric.  Time and space do not allow an extensive list of examples.  To find assisting victometrics, think about things like strength, endurace, number of available options, secrecy, intelligence, stocks of available resources, speed, agility, etc.

In games, the rules are clear and the definition of success and victory is understood.

In the real world, victory or defeat can be far more subjective.  Often, one of the primary responsibilities of a leader is to define the objectives.  What does it mean to win or lose?  How will we keep score?  Without consensus on these seemingly obvious questions, teamwork becomes extremely challenging.  In business circles, there are some tools that exist to address these questions.

The systems engineering world has sought to effectively define system characteristics and to write requirements that establish the rules of a system and define what success or failure means.  This is a rich body of knowledge and experience.  But, the name that people have used is "key performance parameter" (KPP) or "key performance indicator" (KPI).  Not very gripping.

KPP and KPI are excellent concepts.  As a master Systems Engineer, I use them regularly.  But, I think these terms miss something important.  Almost anything can be counted or measured if you build a fancy-enough instrument.  What is the score?  Are we winning or losing?  This is the key question that a victometric answers.

One of the major challenges in Operation Iraqi Freedom and any other battle was to define Victory.  It was easy to measure explosions or body bags.  But, were those good indicators of whether we were winning or losing?  Metrics are easy.  Victometrics are harder to define, especially in a real-time stratego-tactical competitive situation.

John Boyd, illustrator of the OODA loop, transformed the aerospace world through his advocacy of Energy Maneuverability theory.  EMT is a model of aircraft performance. It is useful in describing an aircraft's performance as the total of kinetic and potential energies or aircraft specific energy. It relates the thrust, weight, drag, wing area, and other flight characteristics of an aircraft into a quantitative model. This allows combat capabilities of various aircraft or prospective design trade-offs to be predicted and compared. (Wikipedia, Energy-Maneuverability theory).  Suddenly, there was a way to keep score when comparing fighter aircraft.  Energy-Maneuverability Theory provided aerospace engineers with victometrics.

Think about your current projects.

  • If they were games, could you easily tell who was winning or losing?
  • Does everyone on your team know the score and how they add to it?
  • If it is a competitive project, are your competitors playing the same game by the same rules?
  • What is defeat?
  • What is victory?
  • How can you measure your score over time?

Agreement about victometrics will bring tremendous clarity to your thinking and help your team work together more effectively.  I would like to help you answer these questions as I continue to explore and develop my own understanding of victometrics and victometry.

A word of warning: knowledge of victometrics is a powerful thing.

It may be in your best interests to hold some of your victometrics and your current score close to the chest.  In Settlers of Catan, for example, part of the score is known and part of the score is secret.  Remember that if you can keep score, so can your adversaries.  At other times, you may gain great advantage by advertising your strength.

The right answer will depend upon the game you are playing.  It is wise to consult with experts in your game before revealing your victometrics and score.

"Victometric", "Victometrics", and "Victometry" are copyrighted terms.
Please use them freely.  Attribution is appreciated.

(C) Copyright 2011 Michael Somerville.  All rights reserved worldwide.
http://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelssomerville