Victometrics ... The measurement of victory!

Victometrics are measurable elements that objectively define victory or defeat in a competitive scenario. You could also call them "victory points".

• In football, the number of points on a scoreboard is a victometric.
• In poker, the number of chips a player controls is a victometric.
• In a race, the runner's course completion time is a victometric.
• In Capture the Flag, successful capture of the flag is a victometric.
• In Starcraft, the number of remaining opposing units is a victometric.
• In King of the Hill, the time spent as King of the Hill might be a victometric.
• In chess, the number of places that a threatened king can move is a victometric. When a threatened king has nowhere to move, it is checkmate.

These are all primary victometrics.  They are the final determining factor of victory or defeat.  There may be dozens or hundreds of secondary victometrics that contribute to changes in a primary victometric.  Time and space do not allow an extensive list of examples.  To find assisting victometrics, think about things like strength, endurace, number of available options, secrecy, intelligence, stocks of available resources, speed, agility, etc.

In games, the rules are clear and the definition of success and victory is understood.

In the real world, victory or defeat can be far more subjective.  Often, one of the primary responsibilities of a leader is to define the objectives.  What does it mean to win or lose?  How will we keep score?  Without consensus on these seemingly obvious questions, teamwork becomes extremely challenging.  In business circles, there are some tools that exist to address these questions.

The systems engineering world has sought to effectively define system characteristics and to write requirements that establish the rules of a system and define what success or failure means.  This is a rich body of knowledge and experience.  But, the name that people have used is "key performance parameter" (KPP) or "key performance indicator" (KPI).  Not very gripping.

KPP and KPI are excellent concepts.  As a master Systems Engineer, I use them regularly.  But, I think these terms miss something important.  Almost anything can be counted or measured if you build a fancy-enough instrument.  What is the score?  Are we winning or losing?  This is the key question that a victometric answers.

One of the major challenges in Operation Iraqi Freedom and any other battle was to define Victory.  It was easy to measure explosions or body bags.  But, were those good indicators of whether we were winning or losing?  Metrics are easy.  Victometrics are harder to define, especially in a real-time stratego-tactical competitive situation.

John Boyd, illustrator of the OODA loop, transformed the aerospace world through his advocacy of Energy Maneuverability theory.  EMT is a model of aircraft performance. It is useful in describing an aircraft's performance as the total of kinetic and potential energies or aircraft specific energy. It relates the thrust, weight, drag, wing area, and other flight characteristics of an aircraft into a quantitative model. This allows combat capabilities of various aircraft or prospective design trade-offs to be predicted and compared. (Wikipedia, Energy-Maneuverability theory).  Suddenly, there was a way to keep score when comparing fighter aircraft.  Energy-Maneuverability Theory provided aerospace engineers with victometrics.

Think about your current projects.

• If they were games, could you easily tell who was winning or losing?
• Does everyone on your team know the score and how they add to it?
• If it is a competitive project, are your competitors playing the same game by the same rules?
• What is defeat?
• What is victory?
• How can you measure your score over time?

Agreement about victometrics will bring tremendous clarity to your thinking and help your team work together more effectively.  I would like to help you answer these questions as I continue to explore and develop my own understanding of victometrics and victometry.

A word of warning: knowledge of victometrics is a powerful thing.

It may be in your best interests to hold some of your victometrics and your current score close to the chest.  In Settlers of Catan, for example, part of the score is known and part of the score is secret.  Remember that if you can keep score, so can your adversaries.  At other times, you may gain great advantage by advertising your strength.

The right answer will depend upon the game you are playing.  It is wise to consult with experts in your game before revealing your victometrics and score.

"Victometric", "Victometrics", and "Victometry" are copyrighted terms.
Please use them freely.  Attribution is appreciated.
(C) Copyright 2011 Michael Somerville.  All rights reserved worldwide.
http://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelssomerville

Opportunity Navigation

The Problem:

A king wanted to test his wise men. He brought them to the easternmost coast of his kingdom and commanded them to build a bridge across the ocean from this point to a point on the other side of the ocean, exactly due east of where they were standing.

How do you build a bridge across an ocean? One wise man decided that he would build a platform and move it across the ocean from one point to another.

Navigation – the art, science, and discipline – has bridged physical oceans for centuries by fusing people, processes, and platforms into reliable, useful systems that overcome problems.  As we enter the Information Age, it is time to reexamine the discipline of navigation from a new perspective.

Today, many of our most pressing problems are not defined by physical oceans, but by digital oceans of data that threaten to overwhelm any who venture out of the Known.  But, as Andre Gide said, "One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight of the shore for a very long time."  How do you do this without becoming utterly lost at sea?

The Discipline:

I submit that we need to recognize those in our midst who have the tools and discipline to become the navigators of the digital oceans.  For lack of a better term, I call this Opportunity Navigation (ON).  Rather than navigate the uncertainty of wind and waves, we must navigate the uncertainty of the unknown unknown.  Yet, for those who succeed, we transform obstacles into opportunities.

To the best of my knowledge, no one else has used this term in this way.  Therefore, a brief description is in order.  Opportunity Navigation (ON) is a systemic discipline that:

• Increases competitive advantage
• Reduces the effect of uncertainty
• Enhances effective communication
• Integrates lore from other disciplines
• Develops data-driven decision making

Increases competitive advantage:

Navigators see more effectively, understand more deeply, choose more wisely, and act more quickly. They are proactive where others are reactive. They have a sense of internal balance, perspective, and orientation that sees opportunity where others see adversity. They have a firm trust and well-tested confidence that is not easily shaken.

When in a competitive environment, navigators move into a position where they control the tempo of the interaction and cause others to react to them, increasing their chance of success in the interaction.

Reduces the effect of uncertainty:

Navigators study uncertainty and confront their own limitations. They must know what is of first importance. They must steward what has been given. They must accept the limits of knowledge. They embrace uncertainty as the medium of creativity. They acknowledge the impermanence of knowledge and the value of knowledge that others have entrusted to them.

Understanding uncertainty is like knowing how to navigate the ocean. It does not guarantee avoidance of harm, but it does transform a terrible element into one of tremendous freedom and opportunity.

Enhances effective communication:

Navigators understand their environment and the tools that they can use. They are able to select the right model of communication, even in the midst of the storm. They know what to say and how to say it. Navigators understand that their job is to bridge uncertainty, find the way, and translate that knowledge into a model that others can use effectively to move together in the right direction.

Integrates lore from other disciplines:

Navigators must be able to understand and harness useful insights from many different disciplines. Navigation is hard work and requires careful calculation. Fortunes and lives may depend upon the results of the navigator’s analysis. The navigator must be able to integrate data from many different sources in order to correct for different types of inherent error. The navigator must be able to objectively test his work and know that it is correct. Multiple perspectives help to eliminate error.

Develops data-driven decision making:

Navigators do not simply set a course at random. That would be sheer folly. Instead, they have learned different proven methods for accurately arriving at a correct decision under certain conditions. They work to collect the data necessary to create the correct conditions for sound decision-making. The discipline of navigation results in an organization that is not tossed about by every wind and wave.

Acknowledgments and Thanks: As I have been struggling to come to my own understanding of these ideas, I have been heavily influenced by several excellent resources, including John Boyd's work on the OODA loop, as described in The Mind of War by Grant Hammond.  A series of ongoing discussions with good friends (including Demetrios Mustakas, Mark Fedeli, Corby Megorden, Dr. Steve Techtmann, Dr. Chris Kinsinger, John Loftness, and Scott Somerville) have helped me to shape very rough ideas into something that makes sense.  My undeserved wife, Jessica, has graciously and lovingly encouraged me all along the way.  She makes my life a joy.  Finally, my life has been transformed by Truth, expressed absolutely in Jesus Christ.  Without apology, he is the blazing center of my universe.  Soli Deo Gloria.

Solomon's Choice

What should a young leader seek? Imagine that you are suddenly elevated to a leadership role. Perhaps you have been painstakingly prepared for leadership by others for years. Perhaps this was something you pursued and achieved against all odds. Perhaps this was something that was thrust upon you suddenly by unexpected or rapid events. However it happened -- you are now in charge. Congratulations. Now what?

A young man once found himself leading a large nation that had recently weathered a long civil war, was surrounded by other nations with an uneasy peace, and faced internal strife over the his own succession to the throne -- achieved only by thwarting a coup from his own half-brother.

This young man was very aware of both his own inexperience and the impossibility of success, even for the most experienced individual. His task was to fill the shoes of a national hero, and he was very aware of his own feet of clay. He had one thing in his favor.

He had just learned that he had “one wish” that might possibly grant him whatever he asked. What should he ask for? The certainty of long life? The protection of personal riches? The death of his enemies? This was Solomon’s Choice. I believe young leaders face it still today.

If you have forgotten what Solomon chose, read here. Would you choose this?

In retrospect, Solomon’s request for understanding to choose between good and evil so that he could accomplish the mission that he had been given was a fantastic request.

My dad (one of my personal heroes) tells about a game that he used to play with his brothers. The game went like this. The players would ask each other, “What would you wish for if you had three wishes?” Once someone person actually suggested a wish, the other players would look for all the different ways that the wish could go wrong. The game finally ended (for my dad, at least) when he stumbled upon the wish, “To be happy.”

This game taught the truth that life is uncertain and unpredictable. Rather than asking for one outcome or another, we are much wiser if we seek an understanding of how to live each moment and face each new challenge. A sailor does not seek to control the waves or wind, but seeks to sail the most seaworthy craft available with the all the skill he has, regardless of the weather. As a result, he gains the freedom to go almost anywhere in the world. In life, I believe we must seek to live “seaworthy” and pursue understanding to choose between good and evil so that we can accomplish the mission that we have been given as leaders.

CISSP Essay #1 - The Business Case for Information Security

I am studying for the Certified Information Systems Security Professional (CISSP) certification.  Since the certification tests the candidate's understanding of concepts, I'm taking some time to pose some essay questions for myself.  First -- explain the business case for information security.

An organization exists because it is able to function in its environment.  For organizations that provide goods or services, the environment has changed significantly in the past 50 years.  Every organization has a structured way to deliver value to their customers.  We call this structure the “business model” of the organization.  

My favorite framework for understanding business models uses nine common elements.  

These include the Customer Segments (CS), the Channels (CH) that allow an organization to reach customers, the Customer Relationship (CR) that enables an organization to serve the customer, the Value Proposition (VP) offered to the customers, and the Revenue Streams (R$) that come from each customer.  

Supporting this outward-facing part of the organization are the Key Resources (KR) that allow an organization to perform Key Activities (KA) to offer the value proposition.  Key Partnerships (KP) either provide key resources or key activities.  Finally, there is an underlying Cost Structure (C$).  

Over the past 50 years, computer-based information systems -- symphonic arrangements of people, processes, and computer platforms that manage information -- have become critical to the overall success of an organization’s business model.  Let’s do a quick back-of-the-napkin comparison of the use of computer-based information systems in 1960 at Walden Books -- an innovator who pushed bookstores into malls in the 1960’s -- with their use at Amazon.com -- an innovator who pushed bookstores onto the Internet in the 2000’s.

Table: Comparison of Computer-Based Information Systems value to Book Sellers

Business Model Element	Information Systems Value to Walden Books in 1960	Information Systems Value to Amazon in 2010
Customer Segments (CS)	None - humans read books	Increasing - information fusion where machines are the primary consumers of published data is infrequent; ebook readers are increasing in popularity, and may become critical in the future
Channels (CH)	None - distribution of books through physical locations	Critical - e-books outsold hardcover books in 2010; 9% percent of customers say they would not buy a “real” book if digital were not available.  In 2009, Amazon became the largest book seller in North America.  Amazon has no physical locations.  Moreover, computers guide the logistics networks that quickly ship books anywhere in the world.
Customer Relationships (CR)	None - sales done in person or self-service at a bookstore	Critical - Amazon uses state-of-the-art algorithms to help people find books among millions and millions of choices.  Amazon’s algorithms “know” a customer based on past buying behavior and correlation with other customer behaviors.
Value Propositions (VP)	None - buy books; niche stores -- buy books on key subjects or really rare books	Critical - find and buy ANY book, and get it in any available format - new, used, hardcover, softcover, ebook
Revenue Streams (R$)	None - payment through check or cash	Critical - payment through electronic forms, including credit card, PayPal, gift card, and automated clearinghouse (ACH) debit cards
Key Resources (KR)	None - physical books are the inventory; physical storefront	Critical - the storefront runs on a computer screen, and content is hosted on vast server farms.  Inventory is either managed by computer or is digital.
Key Activities (KA)	None - the value was increased through the knowledge of customers and books held by the owner and staff.	Critical - the ability to find the right material for the customer based on their interests is done by computer assistance.
Key Partnerships (KP)	None - publishers delivered physical books to wholesalers, then to retailers.	Increasing - especially as ebooks gain in popularity, the paper is going out of publishing; the value of a publishing partner is linked to the number of electronic books that they are willing to publish in various e-reader formats.
Cost Structure (C$)	None - bookstores cannot afford computers; maybe some major publishers use a computer.	Critical - in 2006, Amazon spent 33% of total expenditures on technology and R&D

From this, we can see that the computer-based information system has become a vital business tool.  To one degree or another, most businesses cannot survive a multi-week loss of their information systems.  This should establish at a visceral level the value of the information system; without it, businesses cannot survive today.  Even the late-adopting Amish are using websites to market their niche products.

Well then, given that the impact of loss is significant, what is the likelihood of a multi-week failure?  After all, even the simplest risk calculations multiply the Impact of a loss by the Likelihood of occurrence when calculating the Exposure of the business to the risk.  While we could find actuarial tables that calculate the risks of fire, flood, theft, vandalism, power outages, mechanical failure, human errors, etc., a simpler measure may be to anecdotally ask how many times you have lost data that required you to redo a significant piece of work.  The health of the data backup industry should indicate that computers are not inherently stable.  The more complex and interdependent the information systems are, the more likely they are to be vulnerable to abuse or attack.  

Information security promises to reduce the organization’s exposure to the twin risks of abuse and attack that are inherent in dependent upon information systems.  In 1960, businesses minimized their risk of theft and abuse through the use of double-entry bookkeeping, banks, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).  Some businesses refused to trust banks and kept their own money safe in physically secure on-site vaults.  

When the cash is on the computer, information security provides the a measure of the protection that vaults, books, and G-men used to offer.  Some businesses may still choose to stuff their money under the mattress and trust in obscurity for protection.  Increasingly, businesses are recognizing the value of common-sense information security.  The fact that there is such a thing as common-sense information security is an indicator of a rising level of awareness about the importance of protecting our valuable digital property.

Clearly, there is a compelling business case for information security.  However, a business case should not be considered the same thing as an open checkbook.  Information Security is becoming a critical business function in the same way that accounting has become a critical business function.  We would do well to compare the role of accounting and the role of information security in the organization.  I think we will find more similarities than differences.

What is an Information Systems Expert?

Step back 100 years ago.  The year is 1911.  It is the dawn of the Age of Flight.  The automobile is a novelty for the wealthy.  Industrialism has driven many off the farms and into the factories.  Social conscience is growing, with clamors for better labor conditions, equality, and human rights.  The edges of the known world have been explored and mapped with successful expeditions to the North Pole and South Pole.  The Scientific Revolution and the Industrial Age are in full swing in the cities with all of the associated good and evil that accompanies progress.

Yet on the farms and in the countryside, much is unchanged.  The sun rises and sets.  Babies are born and grandparents die.  Seedtime and harvest, summer and winter proceed unchanged.  This is the mainstream.  Substantially unaffected by the whirling world, thorns and weeds are still subdued by the sweat of man and beast.  The tractor has not yet replaced the draft horse.  In this world, there is a close partnership between man and beast in the work of the day.

In this world, the veterinarian is seen as a part of the world of new-fangled inventions.  Trained both scientifically and practically, applying expert knowledge to the care and service of the beasts that enable the farmers to operate, these men are viewed with a mixture of affection and suspicion.  Miracle workers when they defeat a common illness with new antibiotics, buffoons when they overlook a basic part of life on the farm, they must earn their place in the world and win the trust of the farmers who have gotten on just fine without them so far.  

Many of us have enjoyed taking a glimpse into the life of the country veterinarian through the wonderful pen of James Herriot, a country vet who worked among the Yorkshire farmers from 1940 to 1995.  His books chronicle the impact of science and technology on the farm community, both its blessings and its tragedies.  

Step forward 100 years.  The year is 2011.  It is the dawn of the Information Age.  In a few short years, the Internet has changed the way that we communicate.  Once relegated to a few universities and laboratories, the computer and, by extension, the information system has become a ubiquitous part of our culture.  Concerns about privacy, confidentiality, freedom result in major headlines about the unauthorized disclosure of state secrets (WikiLeaks).  Information systems provide us with global awareness, bringing Haiti, Chile, the Gulf of Mexico, Japan, and the rest of the world into our living rooms and raising our appreciation of our common bonds with others around the world.  Information systems give us models that let us think globally, while acting locally.  Many of us have given up on paper maps and rely upon the Global Positioning System (GPS) to get from one place to another.  All of this is fantastically useful!

Yet in the offices and shops, much is unchanged.  The sun rises and sets.  New customers and competitors come and go.  Good times and tough times proceed unchanged.  This is the mainstream.  Substantially unaffected by the whirling world, customers still served using the machines and skills that have worked well for years.  Email and the word processor have largely replaced the memo and the typewriter, but the tablet has not yet replaced the clipboard.  In this world, there is a close partnership between man and machine in the work of the day.

In our world, the information systems expert is seen as a part of the world of new-fangled inventions.  Trained both scientifically and practically, applying expert knowledge to the utility of the system as a whole and the business functions it supports, the geek, the techie, the guy who knows how this stuff works is viewed with a mixture of affection and suspicion.  Miracle workers when they recover a seemingly-lost file after a critical system failure or clean the system of a virus, buffoons when they are ignorant of a basic part of life in the world of business, they must earn their place and win the trust of the business owners and organization who have gotten on just fine without them.

The Meaning of Life - Illustrated

How would you draw the meaning of life?

The question probably raises eyebrows.  Can we even know the meaning of life?  If we can know it, isn't it surely something too abstract or personal to ever illustrate in a picture?

Maybe.

Last March, I spent two days at Panera Bread, hunched over an Asiago Cheese bagel and a limitless supply of fresh hazelnut coffee, grappling with the question of what I was supposed to do with my life.  What end was I to pursue?  How could I have the best chance of working at something that would not be a waste of my life?  Should I pursue greatness?  If so, what did this look like?

This soul-searching produced the following picture:

Based upon one of Aesop's fables, Jim Collins explains the "Hedgehog Principle" in his excellent book "Good to Great".  In a nutshell, a fox attempts to capture and eat a hedgehog using a myriad of different cunning schemes.  At each attack, the hedgehog simply curls into a spiky ball, and waits for the fox to go away.  The fox is frustrated in every brilliant, unique attempt by this one, simple defense.  The moral of the story is that the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.  

Collins goes on to suggest that organizations center their activities at the intersection of the activities that they are passionate about, that they can be world-class at, and that drive their economic engine.  Collins calls this "the Hedgehog Concept".

Using a curious combination of the prayer, the Gladiator soundtrack, asiago, and hazelnut, I translated this concept into my own personal hedgehog concept.  Christ died for our sins and called us from slavery to sin to slavery to God. By faith, we live under God’s authority and do His will, stewarding God’s gifts, expecting that God will reward us with heavenly treasures and provide daily bread.

Passion, Excellence, and Reward.  If we pursue these things, and center our lives upon Christ's work, I believe that we will find at the end of our race that we have not wasted our lives.  

Systems Illustrated ... symphonies, not skyscrapers

Welcome to Systems Illustrated!

Systems are more like songs and symphonies than like structures and skyscrapers. So, what does a system look like? This is the question that we will explore together through the materials presented here.

To start, let's define our terms. I define a system -- especially an information system -- as a dynamic exchange of messages between people according to a defined process using some physical platform. The key words are Message, Person, Process, and Platform.

The simplest example of a true information system that I can give is one that everyone who has ever eaten at a restaurant has used.

• A waiter walks up to a customer. The waiter greets the customer and introduces herself. The customer acknowledges the greeting.
• The waiter asks if the customer is ready to order. The customer is ready and orders a meal. The waiter writes down the customer's order on a pad of paper with a pencil. The waiter gives an estimate of how long the meal will take to arrive.
• The waiter takes the paper order to the cook. The cook lines up the order with all the other orders. The cook prepares the meal. The cook announces to the waiter that the meal is ready.
• The waiter brings the meal to the customer. The customer eats the meal.
• The waiter asks if the customer is finished and ready to pay. The customer is. The waiter brings the check (created from the order). The customer pays the check.
• The check is filed for the restaurant's records.

You see that this simple, basic interaction describes a set of Messages (the greeting, the order, the check), a set of People (customer, waiter, cook), a set of Processes (the welcome, the order, the meal, the transaction), and at least one Platform (the waiter's notepad and pencil).

Systems are more like symphonies -- dynamic performances of many individual instruments to produce a total experience that resonates with a particular audience -- than like skyscrapers.

No one ever stubbed their toe on a system.

So, what do systems "look" like?